RESILIENT WORKPLACES AND BEYOND

shaun April 22, 2020

RESILIENT WORKPLACES AND BEYOND – A DRAFT WHITE PAPER ON THE POST-COVID 19 WAY OF WORKING

Collaborators for this paper – Simone Santi, Francesca Greco (Lendlease Italy), Kevin Chapman, Alison Webb, Rachel Edwards (Lendlease UK), Neil Usher (GoSpace AI), Andrew Waugh (Waugh Thistleton Architects), Sarah Halpin, Riccardo Zara (Ramboll UK), Shaun Baker (Woodalls Design)

Introduction

This paper examines how the workplace will change, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, given what we know today and what we may assume for the future. Updates will follow as the situation unfolds globally.

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a profound effect on the way organisations use physical and digital space, both in the short and long term. COVID-19 has already increased market sensitivity to the risk of pandemics, and our preparedness to manage them in the future. The world was not ready to manage a global pandemic (Gates, 2015), and most companies were even less prepared to cope with the overnight changes to the workplace. Luckily, for many, policies put in place for technology and Smart Working have much supported the transition to this new way of working.

Some of the current responses we foresee are:

exponential adoption of digital technologies.
immediate adaptation of the physical product to increased sanitary demands.
behavioural changes in the workforce, driving changes to the workplace.
a shift towards commercial arrangements between occupiers and landlords to ensure maximum flexibility and cost control while maintaining control over safety.

This paper is a synthesis of information, based on a literature review on several different papers and articles, written on the subject to date. Refer to Appendix A for the complete reading list.

Knowledge, limitations and behavioural considerations

What we know for sure at this present time:

Through necessity, the working population of the most industrialised countries, has been forced into home working. Therefore, an informed response is now possible.

It has not been a home working ‘experiment’, but a necessary response to a global health crisis. We are not just ‘working from home’ but are ‘working at home during a pandemic.

The form of enforced home working has denied access to other traditional settings and locations that would otherwise be an option or the alleviation of feelings of isolation– cafés and co-working centres.

Traditional commercial workspace was consistently under-utilised before COVID-19 by 30-50%. This under-utilisation occurred despite many companies eliminating private offices in favour of open-plan space (including ‘agile’ workspace). Over the past decade, the amount of space per office worker declined by as much as 25 per cent, to around 10 square metres per person. This underutilisation carries wasted resources and costs with an unacceptable environmental impact, effectively up to half of all commercial office space may not be required.

There is currently no vaccine for COVID-19, so we can assume that behaviours, generated through social distancing requirements, will continue.

What we suspect may be happening going forward:

While a 2019 analysis of US government data indicates that only 3.4% of the US workforce works from home at least half the time, it is estimated that 50% of US workers hold jobs that could conduct work remotely, at least some of the time (Cushman and Wakefield, 2020).

The digital infrastructure for remote work already exists and is proving resilient. The ability to work from the home, at least during part of the week, avoiding time-wasting commutes, appears here to stay. The increased adoption of technology to enable remote work to continue productively will potentially drive the physical workplace to become a host environment for social interaction and collaboration.

Lost collaboration opportunities, particularly those relating to spontaneous interaction, as digital connectivity tools cannot capture and support the ‘social cues’ that occur in a face-to-face scenario.

Organisations are reviewing whether their present real estate holding, both from a location and a spatial perspective, is required, given the ‘proof of concept’ in whole or part relating to home working. Corporations might test whether a complementary, alternative work location near to people’s homes, could add a valuable and productive option into their staff (and customer’s) work-lives (Lendlease’s Local Office concept recently piloted in Sydney). On occasion, being close to home is desirable, but working in the home can sometimes be less than ideal from a motivation and productivity standpoint. While we can plan for a productive workplace, not everyone can create an effective place to work at home.

If companies do allow more of their employees to connect from home, some may consider reducing their office footprint. This would have to be set against the increase of space devoted to employee workstations, and other ancillary functions, to ensure a safe working environment. All things considered, demand for space could balance out. It is important to note, however, that future planning may not necessarily be based upon the ‘full attendance’ model that has prevailed for several decades.

Irrespective of considerations of the overall space requirement, the way space will be used may change – its composition, the balance of work settings, their relationships and their frequency of use.

It is likely that the scheduling of attendance will be a significant feature of the future workplace, bringing those teams together to collaborate on specified days rather than the assumption of full attendance with collaboration occurring via self-organisation. This will help offset any increase in overall space requirements.

A heightened sense of personal safety and health, as a gradual relaxing of movement restrictions progresses, will be accompanied by caution and anxiety, as people slowly return to work. It will vary from person to person. The aftermath of the pandemic may steer developers and tenants alike to focus on creating a healthier workplace overall, with hospital-quality HVAC systems, strictly specified and high-quality cleaning regimes, the removal of physical contact points and new behavioural etiquette.

Impacts on workplace design

The impacts on workplace design are already being considered by companies, and think tanks, across the world. To assess the impact on workplace design, we can group the analysis against five key time phases.

Phase 1 – Lockdown – people working from home, strict social distancing in place at, a government level.
Phase 2 – Immediate short-term re-opening – consideration of what modifications are needed to return to work.
Phase 3 – Pre-vaccine – currently assumed to be 12-18 months.
Phase 4 – Post vaccine – Modifications, and potential re-adoption and loosening up of physical distancing constraints.
Phase 5 – Long term – permanent disruptive change in workplace design. In the long run, workplaces may see significant changes. Companies have a duty of care to consider, develop, anticipate, incorporate changes into their products.

Countries around the world are in different phases, so reaching Phase 5 will be progressive. However, countries like China and Italy, who experienced the pandemic first, will also be the first to adapt to long term change. As countries progress through the various phases, many of the changes implemented will be based on best-known practices, most of which have not been tested or proven.

Following are some of the ideas currently captured in various papers and discussions on the topic.

Phase 1 – Lockdown

Office spaces have been abandoned with the rapid adoption of home working.

Phase 2 – Immediate short-term re-opening

Reduced density – Companies are already implementing return to work strategies, and this provides a tangible insight into the ways the office environment will change, and adapt, in the immediate short term. One solution is to reduce office density by about 50%, to comply with the 1-2m rule. An increase take-up of remote working (WFH) over the past months will help to achieve this without significant disruption. It is worth noting that the distance rule seems to vary among different countries – i.e.in Italy it is 1m, In the UK it is 2m, and in Australia it is 1.5m. As an example of how the office density will change in the short term, refer to Appendix B – Proposed changes implemented by Lendlease Milan head office.

Cleaning – Government requirements will drive changes in this area, such as a requirement to decontaminate existing office spaces before any workers allowed to return to an office space. Cleaning will require the use of prescribed chemicals (potentially with high VOC), and the cleaning staff will need to wear PPE. Additional cleaning focus will be on surfaces that people regularly touch, including lift buttons, door handles, meeting room touch screens. Future design changes for these touchpoints will likely be needed to de-risk these areas. The cost of this cleaning regime will be at the expense of organisations.

Increased personal hygiene – People will need to increase personal hygiene etiquette, with handwashing as a prioritised practice. This will require companies to locate signs in kitchen and bathroom areas showing best handwashing practices. Hand sanitising stations will also be located through the office space, at reception areas, and all spaces that external visitors will occupy.

Testing – Data for rates of infection for COVID-19, across the globe, is currently determined by testing done under medical supervision, using approved testing kits. These tests are currently not available generally. As such, most companies can only test for symptoms, such as measuring body temperature. Inclusion of thermal scanners and digital thermometers provides an intermediate solution to help de-risk. This is currently only a test to check symptoms but does confirm whether the person has the virus, so it does not eliminate the risk. Use of antibody tests are currently unproven, so companies are unable to rely on this to determine whether a person is “safe” to return to work.

Lifts –For office buildings that rely on lifts, a lift use plan will need to be implemented to limit the number of people in the lift at the same time. For multitenant buildings, a combined plan will be needed for the building.

Team office time – With the need to reduce workplace density to meet physical distancing requirements, companies will need to determine who physical goes into the office, and when. This is likely to be an extension of Activity-Based Working, for teams, instead of individuals.

Technology – Technology will be central to the workplace of the future. In the immediate short term, technology may be required to ensure maximum workplace density does not exceed the prescribed limit. People may need to “book into the office” before they physically come into the office.

Flexible travel times – Working hours may be flexible to allow staff to travel to work outside peak hours and therefore avoid overcrowded public transport.

Phase 3 – Pre-Vaccine – focus on physical distancing

Co-working space – There is likely to be a reconsideration on the utilisation of flexible space (‘co-working’) where space, amenities and resources are shared with strangers, and attendees (and their state of physical health) are unknown.

Personal space – We expect a review of the adoption of free address/agile practices where sharing of spaces and amenities is prevalent, in favour of more personalised space, coupled with greater physical separation, with less expectation of everyday use of the workplace for solo activity. The need for efficiency will also impact these approaches. With more personalised space, people feel safer as they have enhanced control over their immediate workstation. This is likely to be accompanied by more personalised IT and other equipment.

Change in density standards – New, more spacious seating arrangements, to provide a degree of social distancing within the workplace (de-densification), with a greater focus on collaboration while present and reduced attention to process activities. Effective density, currently defined by the BCO standards is one person per 10-12.5 on NIA, could potentially increase to 1 person in 20, in the short term, to 1 person in 15 in the long-term.

Flexible fit-out solutions – Either flexible, moveable fit-out solutions to cater for different teams occupying the office at different times of the day or days in the week or more meaningful thought to more generally usable workspace requiring limited intervention to be effective.

Phase 4 – Post Vaccine – focus on sanitary measures

Sanitary measures – Just as the terrorist attacks of 9/11 created tighter security measures in office buildings and flooding episodes such as hurricane Sandy in NYC in 2012 prompted the elevation of mechanical systems, COVID-19 may focus the attention on accelerating the development and the introduction of specific sanitary measures.

Cleaning – Even with a vaccine, people will still be alert to the potential for another unknown health pandemic. Cleaning will, therefore, remain healthcare quality cleaning and disinfecting regimes and increased utilisation of Ultra-Violet Germicidal Irradiation (UVGI) within the MEP systems to further enhance air sanitation, and potentially within the office environment (out of hours only).

Building materials – increase usage of building material with natural anti-microbe properties, such as copper, brass and bronze. Material and spaces that discourage the spread of germs and are extremely easy to sanitise. In this regard, companies may look to hospital and lab design, to find best practice solutions.

Contactless technology – Sensor activated, contactless technology, such as facial and voice recognition and destination control lifts that could provide control and access to rooms and elevators without employees having to touch a handle or press a button. Wireless IT equipment to transmit and share information without the need to plug in into other devices plus greater use of personal mobile devices to activate meeting room bookings and open security doors (reducing the need to touch shared surfaces).

Phase 5 – Long term disruptive changes

Exhaust ventilation systems – will most likely be kept on and ensured that the toilets are under-pressure (lower pressure than outdoor).

Air- extract – Enhanced humidity and ventilation and air extract systems to ensure hospital-like air quality might be introduced.

Heat recovery devices – Implement a safe use of heat recovery devices. Rotary wheels might cause air contamination; therefore, alternative systems such as plate heat exchanger might be considered.

Fresh air intake – for mechanically ventilated systems will be a must, together with the elimination of recirculated air, with high-efficiency media-based filters installed on all AHU units. This might increase the overall capital cost of office buildings, which could however be balanced by less onerous fume extraction systems and a reduction in glazed surfaces.

Mixed-mode ventilation systems –openable windows connected to BMS, split AHU to prevent the spread of potentially harmful bacteria and germs, adaptive thermal comfort might provide employees with more control over the comfort of their immediate surroundings.

WELL rating -The highest level of the WELL rating accreditation. The WELL rating system itself may become more onerous and costly to obtain.

In house robotics – the introduction of highly automated robotic components to replace human intervention in less desirable and especially more harmful tasks, such as removal of hazardous waste and maintenance of air filtration systems. Such systems, however, could also be deployed as part of the estate management, for example, for parcel delivery services.

Creating resilient cities

The changes we may see at a building level, may equally be reflected at an urban level. We therefore need to understand, and find connections, between the synergies that drive both perspectives.

There have been several health pandemics in history that have triggered fundamental changes in urban design and planning. Each pandemic has exposed faults with the urban environment, forcing people to think differently about how to adapt. (Arnsten, 2019, Gensler 2020).

Cholera – London, in the early 19th century, led to improvements in sanitation, including waste collection and even changes in the way streets were paved to eliminate the risk of pooling of contaminated water.
Tuberculosis – New York, in the early 20th century, led to improvements in housing regulations and public parks and triggered the requirements for more fresh air and natural ventilation in buildings.
SARS – Asia, at the onset of the 21st century, led improvements to medical infrastructure and improved systems to monitor and map disease.

What strengths and weaknesses in urban planning has the COVID-19 pandemic so far exposed? Below we look at six key areas of a resilient city.

Healthy cities – like in building design, elements of sanitation and sustainability are likely to permanently transition, from a nice to have, to a regulatory demand. We could expect that sustainability frameworks like LEED Neighbourhood, and WELL requirements, while currently desirable, but optional, could be mandated by governments. Projects will need to account for this in budget forecasts, as the market will unlikely be responsive to any development that does not meet the highest “health” standards. These standards will likely go beyond the mandate of current requirements and aspirations.

Green cities – the pandemic has triggered unprecedented behavioural changes. Italy and China have faced some of the most severe restrictions on people movement in the world. Access to green open spaces, and biophilia, has been a lifeline for many, for both physical and mental wellbeing. This ranges from pots plants on sunny windowsills in homes, to balconies, gardens, tree-lined streets and urban parks. Equitable access to green places is likely to be an essential, an attractive proposition in future markets. A good starting benchmark, for a green city, is Singapore, where there is an active push to introduce green places through initiatives that move beyond the ground plane, to sky gardens, urban farms and green rooftops connected by bridges.

Walkable cities – during lockdowns across the globe, the focus has moved from cities, to neighbourhood centres. The Italian government mandated that 250m was the furthest distance from home someone could walk for exercise. Cities with established “urban villages”, that encourage community connections and social interactions are likely to be more resilient to future threats, particularly in their capacity to support mental health and, improve quality of life overall. In Milan, both the Milano Santa Giulia and MIND (Milano Innovation District) reflect this model and are well-positioned to respond to future needs. The “local office” in Manly Australia is another example of how services in urban villages may develop. Otheremerging ideas, such as the15 minute walkable city, introduced in Paris, and adopted by several American cities, is likely to be a growing trend.

Agile cities – we can attempt to make predictions about what the future might look like for cities, however, what this pandemic has taught us, is that you can never really know what will happen. The best way to prepare for this is to set up an agile infrastructure to adapt and respond to change. We have already seen several examples of this, at a city scale. In London, conference centres shifted use overnight to hospitals. Services across the globe transitioned from physical spaces to digital spaces. A good example of a city that has proven its agility, is Barcelona, where the traditional city grid is transforming into “superblocks” that encourage walkable, car free, community interfaces. Agility in urban, and building design, will be a crucial driver of change in urban design in the future.

Smart cities – it is clear the rapid adoption of technology during the pandemic has attracted a broader market, and potentially a more willing market, open to experimental digital interfaces. Increase in video conferencing may most likely change how we move in, and between cities. Perhaps the time saved commuting between meetings will be spent with active “away time from technology” by walking at the beginning or end of a working day. Smart “green” cities, where technology is used to support positive behavioural change, is likely to be very well received in the market.

Innovation cities – the unique requirements of an innovation district are to merge physical, economic and social assets. A model, like the one implemented for MIND, which is delivered in a mixed-use environment that includes residential, offices, retail, hotel and leisure, a hospital, a research centre and a university may provide a unique testing ground to define and benchmark the needs of a future resilient city. Within “innovation cities” we believe it is likely that the customer needs from different assets classes may begin to merge. For example, the residential product may evolve into a complementary workplace (more rooms). The need for physical, social interaction will support the continued use of co-working spaces. How the “hots spots of convergence” are designed in an innovation district will evolve, may be determined by when, or whether, a vaccine is found.

Potential Impact of COVID-19 on commercial leasing agreements

A commercial leasing agreement, to address the COVID-19 uncertainties, will need reflect the needs of people and organisations now, and offer a balanced approach between traditional leasing agreements, and flexible leasing agreements.

Evolving needs in organisations, for both company and people.
Increase profitability – reduce real estate costs and increase the ability to invest more in people and investment opportunities.

Increased flexibility – allow organisations to be more resilient to change and provide people with more choice. Opportunity to develop trust by the removal of panoptic management practices (management by observation).

Increased safety and wellbeing – allow people to work at their optimum and enable organisations to benefit from optimal productivity.

Increase technological use – allow organisations to save costs on travel and allow people to work anywhere.

Existing traditional and emerging lease arrangements
Long term leased offices – traditional lease agreement, based on a per metre square/per annum rate. Offers a defined and secure organisational space for tenants, with branding opportunities.
Short term leased space – Serviced office & Co-working spaces – leased by arrangement on a membership basis. Space is fitted out and ready to occupy, on short term commitments, with central amenities and managed estate costs included.
Core & Flex lease option – where the primary lease accounts for short term growth, and contraction, with flexible space at a substantial cost premium (as the price of flexibility).
Neighbourhood centres – Bookable, based on an hourly rate, and offered to specific company employees.
Remote working – Increase use of the home office as an extension of the workplace. Provides significant cost savings to companies by reducing office space needed, and corresponding utility charges (mainly electricity, internet connection, furniture, air-conditioning). Increasing requirements for remote working may potentially generate costs back to organisation.

Considerations for commercial leasing agreements
Inclusion of pandemics as “force majeure” clauses, into AFLs and lease agreements, as tenants look to protect against delays in delivery and potential swings in rental/incentive pricing.
Agreement on a mix of short to medium term lease commitments, to counter market uncertainty.
Commitment to provide highest quality service regime (cleaning, sanitisation). Potential expectation that this will not increase service charges.
Inclusion of smart buildings technology to monitor health and wellbeing.
Inclusion of landlord managed technology to pro-actively assess utilisation and make recommendations on occupied space.
Identification of central shared amenities, and servicers, for multitenancy buildings to ensure consistent standards (like lift utilisation and whole building cleaning protocols). Costs to be included in one rolled-up rental charge for full tenant cost/landlord income certainty.
Increase in flexible fitout solutions – Landlord provided space in discreet and secure modular units. A menu of pre-established fit-out solutions, providing controlled flexibility of choice. Fully operational (furnished, range of settings, meeting rooms – all to high quality, high functional performance). No penalty to the occupier in adding/removing modular units.
Inclusion of no fit-out or dilapidations costs for tenants, for managed co-working spaces. Provision of branding opportunities, in designated areas for fast install/removal.